Sales-led

Attribution Is Not Incrementality

Attribution assigns credit for conversions you observed. Incrementality estimates the ones that would not have happened otherwise. The gap between them is where budgets go wrong.

Defining Events That Survive Contact With Operations

A lead, an activation, and a qualified opportunity are organizational agreements before they are data. What happens to a time series when the agreement changes and nobody writes it down.

The Same Click, Different Funnels

One ad click means something different in a self-serve checkout than in a sales-qualified pipeline. The funnel it enters decides the unit, the window, and the outcome you are allowed to attribute it to.

Leads Versus Incremental Qualified Pipeline

A B2B lead program that hit every MQL target, measured by a staged rollout across territories. Leads went up by half. Opportunities and pipeline did not detectably move, the leads converted at two thirds the rate, and the design could never have seen the pipeline effect it was asked about.

Choosing the Right Campaign Optimization Event

The deepest event that stays reliable, timely, and frequent enough to train on. Alignment sets a ceiling you cannot buy your way past, precision decides how close you get, and only one of them improves with volume.

The Account Graph

One canonical buying unit, the contacts that resolve to it, the buying episodes in which it can buy, and the state it was in when treated. Two grains at once, and every measurement downstream depends on which one a number is counted at.

Designs When Randomization Is Refused

No sales leader will accept a do-not-touch list on named accounts. What can be assigned is the marketing program itself, with sales left alone in both arms, and after that the territory, the partner, and the order of a staged rollout.

Lag-Aware Readouts

Deals close over quarters and decks are due in weeks, so the readout has to choose an outcome it can observe and say what it gave up by choosing it.

Sourced, Influenced, and What Replaces Them

Two reporting conventions that divide pipeline without a counterfactual, why both are attribution wearing a B2B accent, and the evidence ledger that should sit above them.

Rep Capacity and Account Prioritization

Which accounts get a rep's hour, which is the scarcest allocation on the list. Scoring is easy, and the constraint that decides whether it changes anything is how many hours exist.

The Prioritization Log

Which accounts were ranked, which were assigned work and at what probability, and what was actually done, with a two-sided exploration band around the cutoff so that both working and not working have support near the line. The record that lets the next ranking be evaluated before it ships.