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Was It Causal?

Attribution · Discipline 1 of 4

Can we trust what we observe?

What happened, and how reliable is the evidence? Tracking loss, identity, consent, event definitions, funnel grain, and attribution as descriptive evidence. Everything downstream inherits the flaws you accept here.

The problem in one chart

Same quarter, same spend, same conversions. On the left, cost per acquisition as reported by last-touch. On the right, as measured against a holdout. Where the lines cross is where budget moves the wrong way.

By reported CAC By incremental CAC Email lifecycle $6 · #1 Email lifecycle $17 · #1 Branded search $15 · #2 Branded search $125 · #5 ↓ 3 Retargeting $24 · #3 Retargeting $133 · #6 ↓ 3 Paid social prospecting $59 · #4 Paid social prospecting $88 · #3 ↑ 1 Non-brand search $65 · #5 Non-brand search $121 · #4 ↑ 1 Online video $135 · #6 Online video $77 · #2 ↑ 4
Branded search and retargeting look like the efficient buys and are the least incremental. Online video looks like the worst buy and is the second most incremental. A team optimising against the left column moves budget in exactly the wrong direction. Simulated data · scripts/attribution_gap.py

Lessons

Planned

The shape of this discipline, published as a roadmap. These are titles and scope, not finished work. They are here so you can see where this is going, not to suggest it has arrived.

Foundation Planned

The Same Click, Different Funnels

One ad click means something different in a self-serve checkout than in a sales-qualified pipeline. Why the funnel grain you choose determines what you can measure.

Not yet written
Applied Planned

What Tracking Loss Actually Costs You

Consent, identity resolution, and cross-device loss are not one problem. Separating random loss from systematic loss, and why only one of them threatens validity.

Not yet written
Applied Planned

Defining Events That Survive Contact With Operations

A lead, an activation, and a qualified opportunity are organizational agreements before they are data. What happens to measurement when the definition drifts.

Not yet written
Foundation Planned

Reading Platform Discrepancies Without Losing Your Mind

Two systems report different numbers for the same campaign. A method for finding which of the four usual causes is responsible.

Not yet written